:Product: 0701RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 01/1050Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 01/0341Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
01/0230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 233 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (02 Jul, 03
Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jul 072
Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul 072/075/075
90 Day Mean        01 Jul 090

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  018/025-020/025-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/15
Minor Storm           20/20/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    55/55/20