:Product: 0703RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 593 km/s at 03/0341Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 02/2244Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
03/0050Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jul 072
Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        03 Jul 089

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  011/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  009/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/05/05