:Product: 0704RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 513 km/s at 04/0342Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 03/2115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/2124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 144 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul, 07
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jul 074
Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        04 Jul 089

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05