:Product: 0705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 438 km/s at 04/2205Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 169 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Jul), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (07 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 072
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul 073/074/075
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 089

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  006/005-012/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/40/25
Minor Storm           01/20/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    05/50/35