:Product: 0708RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
08/0056Z from Region 2564 (N10E79). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jul,
10 Jul, 11 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 672 km/s at 08/0916Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 07/2226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 07/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 908 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (09 Jul, 11
Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jul 087
Predicted   09 Jul-11 Jul 087/087/087
90 Day Mean        08 Jul 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul  019/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul  018/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul  015/020-008/008-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/35
Minor Storm           15/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    45/20/45