:Product: 0709RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/1607Z from Region 2564 (N09E63). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jul,
11 Jul, 12 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 692 km/s at 09/1439Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 08/2313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
09/1300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3008 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (10 Jul, 12 Jul)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (11 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jul 092
Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul 092/092/090
90 Day Mean        09 Jul 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  018/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  015/016-015/020-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor Storm           10/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           35/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/45/30