:Product: 0716RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
16/0704Z from Region 2567 (N04E15). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Jul,
18 Jul, 19 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 675 km/s at 16/0021Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 16/1112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/1124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4313 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (19 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jul 107
Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        16 Jul 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/15/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/20