:Product: 0717RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
17/0803Z from Region 2567 (N05E02). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jul,
19 Jul, 20 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 545 km/s at 17/0155Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
17/1234Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5512 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (19 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (20 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jul 105
Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        17 Jul 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  006/005-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/30
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/20/30