:Product: 0719RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/1153Z from Region 2565 (N06W35). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul,
22 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 390 km/s at 19/1642Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7070 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21
Jul, 22 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jul 101
Predicted   20 Jul-22 Jul 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        19 Jul 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  010/012-013/015-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor Storm           35/30/35
Major-severe storm    30/30/30