:Product: 0721RSGA.txt :Issued: 2016 Jul 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2016 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 21/0046Z from Region 2567 (N05W52). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (22 Jul, 23 Jul) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (24 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 21/1439Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/0418Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at 21/1915Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (22 Jul, 23 Jul). III. Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul Class M 35/30/15 Class X 05/05/01 Proton 10/10/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Jul 100 Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 088 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 019/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 009/010-008/008-007/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 25/20/10