:Product: 0723RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
23/0516Z from Region 2567 (N05W80). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (24 Jul) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on day two (25 Jul) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on day three (26 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 22/2114Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 22/2218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/0610Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Jul), quiet levels on
day two (25 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (26 Jul).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (24 Jul, 25 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M    40/30/01
Class X    10/01/01
Proton     10/10/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jul 086
Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul 085/080/075
90 Day Mean        23 Jul 089

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  007/008-006/005-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/35
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/10/45