:Product: 0725RSGA.txt :Issued: 2016 Jul 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2016 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 25/0909Z from Region 2567 (N05W0*). There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (26 Jul) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 25/0204Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 24/2103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/0826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 622 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul, 28 Jul). III. Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul Class M 10/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Jul 074 Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 25 Jul 088 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 012/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 010/015-010/012-011/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/35/30 Minor Storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 45/45/40