:Product: 0726RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 426 km/s at 25/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 944 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28
Jul, 29 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jul 074
Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        26 Jul 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  015/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  010/012-010/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/40/30