:Product: 0727RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
Jul, 29 Jul, 30 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 365 km/s at 26/2116Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
27/1607Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
27/2033Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1671 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (28 Jul, 29 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jul 072
Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        27 Jul 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  010/012-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/30/25