:Product: 0730RSGA.txt :Issued: 2016 Jul 30 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2016 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 29/2326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1133 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (01 Aug) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (02 Aug). III. Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Jul 071 Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 30 Jul 087 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 016/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 006/005-007/008-020/032 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/30 Minor Storm 01/10/35 Major-severe storm 01/01/20 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/05 Minor Storm 20/30/20 Major-severe storm 10/40/70