:Product: 0731RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jul 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 430 km/s at 31/0524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1110 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Aug), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (02 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (03 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jul 072
Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        31 Jul 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  007/008-020/032-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor Storm           10/30/25
Major-severe storm    01/20/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    40/65/55