:Product: 0802RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (03 Aug) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on days two and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 459 km/s at 02/1715Z. Total IMF reached 20
nT at 02/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at
02/2005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 906 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Aug), unsettled to
active levels on day two (04 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (05 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Aug 075
Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug 080/080/085
90 Day Mean        02 Aug 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug  014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  015/020-012/015-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/35/35
Major-severe storm    55/40/30