:Product: 0804RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (05 Aug) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on days two and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 698 km/s at 04/1026Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 04/1926Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 04/1429Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4929 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (05 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Aug 076
Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        04 Aug 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  024/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug  016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  013/015-007/010-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           35/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/25/25