:Product: 0806RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 732 km/s at 05/2150Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 06/0251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/0804Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16205 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (07 Aug, 09
Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (08 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Aug 083
Predicted   07 Aug-09 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        06 Aug 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug  016/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug  007/010-015/020-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/20
Minor Storm           05/25/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/55/25