:Product: 0809RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
09/0042Z from Region 2574 (N05E49). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Aug,
11 Aug, 12 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 673 km/s at 09/0940Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 09/0955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
09/0851Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4147 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Aug 092
Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug 095/100/100
90 Day Mean        09 Aug 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  010/012-007/010-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           35/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/25/25