:Product: 0810RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (11 Aug) and likely to be
low on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 10/1530Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 10/0517Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/0519Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5975 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (12 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (13 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Aug 095
Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug 095/095/090
90 Day Mean        10 Aug 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  015/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug  012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  010/012-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/15