:Product: 0811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/1644Z from Region 2574 (N04E21). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Aug,
13 Aug, 14 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 11/1605Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/0055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/1715Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10558 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Aug 095
Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug 095/090/090
90 Day Mean        11 Aug 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  007/008-005/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/15