:Product: 0812RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug,
14 Aug, 15 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 868 km/s at 12/1314Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/2118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7552 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Aug, 14 Aug)
and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Aug 095
Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        12 Aug 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  007/008-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                01/01/10
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05