:Product: 0813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Aug,
15 Aug, 16 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 551 km/s at 12/2340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12032 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (15 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (16 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 091
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  006/005-010/012-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/35
Minor Storm           01/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/20