:Product: 0814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/1936Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug,
16 Aug, 17 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 462 km/s at 14/0458Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/0528Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1052Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10062 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (15 Aug, 17 Aug)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (16 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 087
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  010/012-014/018-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor Storm           10/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/40