:Product: 0816RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (17 Aug, 18 Aug)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (19 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 351 km/s at 16/2032Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
16/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
16/2018Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6711 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (17 Aug, 19 Aug)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Aug 087
Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        16 Aug 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug  006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  009/006-007/008-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/25
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/15/25
Major-severe storm    40/05/40