:Product: 0820RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 19/2143Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
20/0208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/2243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 206 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Aug, 23
Aug) and quiet levels on day two (22 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Aug 078
Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug 082/082/082
90 Day Mean        20 Aug 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  009/008-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/15/20