:Product: 0821RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 21/1932Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 21/1429Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
21/1323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 889 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (22 Aug, 23 Aug)
and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Aug 077
Predicted   22 Aug-24 Aug 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        21 Aug 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug  006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug  007/007-007/008-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/20