:Product: 0822RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Aug,
24 Aug, 25 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 22/0256Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 22/0059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0112Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Aug 080
Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        22 Aug 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  007/008-010/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/25
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20