:Product: 0828RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Aug,
30 Aug, 31 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 434 km/s at 27/2223Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2161 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (29 Aug, 30
Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (31 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Aug 085
Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug 085/082/082
90 Day Mean        28 Aug 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug  005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  014/020-014/018-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15