:Product: 0831RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Aug 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
31/2019Z from Region 2585 (N08E71). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (01 Sep) and likely to be low with a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 31/0004Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 31/1126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
31/1811Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (01 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M    10/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Aug 098
Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        31 Aug 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  011/015-009/012-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    15/05/15