:Product: 0901RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Sep,
03 Sep, 04 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 01/1855Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 01/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 01/0609Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (02 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Sep 095
Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        01 Sep 084

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep  022/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  011/015-009/012-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/15