:Product: 0902RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 02 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Sep,
04 Sep, 05 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 738 km/s at 02/2100Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 01/2156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 01/2215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 11398 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (03 Sep, 04
Sep, 05 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 095
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  029/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  026/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  009/012-009/012-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/10