:Product: 0903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Sep,
05 Sep, 06 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 823 km/s at 03/2050Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 03/0406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 02/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 22115 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (04 Sep), unsettled to
active levels on day two (05 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (06 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 099
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  024/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  026/036
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  020/030-015/018-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/15
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    30/10/10