:Product: 0904RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Sep,
06 Sep, 07 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 853 km/s at 03/2214Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 04/1249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 03/2331Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 40294 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Sep 097
Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep 098/098/098
90 Day Mean        04 Sep 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  021/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep  020/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  015/018-011/012-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/10