:Product: 0909RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Sep,
11 Sep, 12 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 483 km/s at 08/2336Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
09/0005Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/1716Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2575 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Sep) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Sep 091
Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep 092/090/090
90 Day Mean        09 Sep 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  004/004-009/009-011/011

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/25