:Product: 0915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 354 km/s at 14/2122Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 15/0129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
14/2155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Sep, 17 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (18 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 084
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep 085/085/080
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  007/006-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    15/15/05