:Product: 0917RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 344 km/s at 17/0828Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
17/0824Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
16/2331Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (18 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (19 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (20
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Sep 080
Predicted   18 Sep-20 Sep 080/080/080
90 Day Mean        17 Sep 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep  006/005-014/018-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/35/40
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/20/30