:Product: 0918RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 18/1044Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 18/0738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/1243Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (19 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (20 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (21 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Sep 083
Predicted   19 Sep-21 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        18 Sep 085

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  014/018-015/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/15
Minor Storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/30/20