:Product: 0927RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/0748Z from Region 2597 (S14W52). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Sep,
29 Sep, 30 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s at 27/2023Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 27/1914Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 27/0807Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 6692 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on days one, two, and three (28
Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Sep 086
Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep 085/085/080
90 Day Mean        27 Sep 086

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  018/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep  033/044
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  028/040-028/044-025/038

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    35/40/40