:Product: 1001RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (02
Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 676 km/s at 01/0439Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 01/1742Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
01/1741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 81034 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (02 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Oct 081
Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct 080/080/085
90 Day Mean        01 Oct 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  015/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  016/018-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/20/15