:Product: 1002RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03
Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 569 km/s at 01/2129Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 02/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 02/1836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 53511 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (03 Oct, 04 Oct) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Oct 082
Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct 080/080/085
90 Day Mean        02 Oct 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  014/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  010/012-011/015-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/10