:Product: 1003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Oct,
05 Oct, 06 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 03/1812Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 03/1609Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/0438Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 32138 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (05 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (06 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 088
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct 088/088/088
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  015/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  011/015-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/10