:Product: 1005RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Oct,
07 Oct, 08 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 04/2119Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 04/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
04/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6832 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 099
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct 099/100/102
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  018/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  007/007-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/10