:Product: 1006RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Oct,
08 Oct, 09 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 05/2118Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 06/1935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/1524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 15288 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 102
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct 102/102/105
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  006/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/10