:Product: 1010RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Oct,
12 Oct, 13 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 415 km/s at 10/1903Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 10/1832Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
10/1453Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4646 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Oct, 12 Oct)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (13 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 102
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  007/008-008/008-012/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20