:Product: 1011RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Oct,
13 Oct, 14 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 447 km/s at 11/1517Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
11/1403Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/1855Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 600 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (13 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (14
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Oct 099
Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        11 Oct 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  006/005-012/018-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/35
Minor Storm           05/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/20/25