:Product: 1012RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/1155Z from Region 2599 (S14W50). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Oct,
14 Oct, 15 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 419 km/s at 11/2217Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
11/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/2217Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 767 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (13 Oct), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (14 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (15 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Oct 098
Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct 095/095/090
90 Day Mean        12 Oct 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Oct  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  012/018-020/030-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct-15 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor Storm           10/25/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/25