:Product: 1014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/1449Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Oct,
16 Oct, 17 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 13/2227Z. Total IMF
reached 24 nT at 13/2203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-18 nT at 13/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1931 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (15
Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 093
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct 095/095/095
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 088

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  030/044
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  022/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  012/015-013/018-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/20