:Product: 1016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2016

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Oct,
18 Oct, 19 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 775 km/s at 16/1514Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 16/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 15/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4699 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (17 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (18 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (19 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 081
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 080/080/075
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 087

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  018/026-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/15/10
Minor Storm           15/01/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    30/20/10